Wednesday, 28 January 2015

Princess Health and "Meaningful Use" not so meaningful: Multiple medical specialty societies now go on record about hazards of EHR misdirection, mismanagement and sloppy hospital computing. Princessiccia

The "Meaningful Use" program for EHRs is a mismanaged boondoggle causing critical issues of patient safety, EHR usability, etc. to be sidestepped.

This is on top of the unregulated U.S. boondoggle which should probably be called "the National Programme for IT in the HHS" - in recognition of the now-defunct multi-billion-pound debacle known as the National Programme for IT in the NHS (NPfIT), see my Sept. 2011 post "NPfIT Programme goes PfffT" at http://hcrenewal.blogspot.com/2011/09/npfit-programme-going-pffft.html.

The complaints are not just coming from me now.

As of January 21, 2015 in a letter to HHS at: http://mb.cision.com/Public/373/9710840/9053557230dbb768.pdf, they are now coming from the:

American Medical Association
AMDA � The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine
American Academy of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology
American Academy of Dermatology Association
American Academy of Facial Plastic
American Academy of Family Physicians
American Academy of Home Care Medicine American Academy of Neurology
American Academy of Ophthalmology
American Academy of Otolaryngology�Head and Neck Surgery
American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation
American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists
American Association of Neurological Surgeons
American Association of Orthopaedic Surgeons
American College of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology
American College of Emergency Physicians
American College of Osteopathic Surgeons
American College of Physicians
American College of Surgeons
American Congress of Obstetricians and Gynecologists
American Osteopathic Association
American Society for Radiology and Oncology
American Society of Anesthesiologists
American Society of Cataract and Refractive Surgery and Reconstructive Surgery
American Society of Clinical Oncology
American Society of Nephrology
College of Healthcare Information Management Executives
Congress of Neurological Surgeons
Heart Rhythm Society
Joint Council on Allergy, Asthma and Immunology
Medical Group Management Association
National Association of Spine Specialists
Renal Physicians Association
Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions
Society for Vascular Surgery


In the letter to Karen B. DeSalvo, National Coordinator for Health Information Technology at HHS, these organizations observe:

Dear Dr. DeSalvo:

The undersigned organizations are writing to elevate our concern about the current trajectory of the certification of electronic health records (EHRs). Among physicians there are documented challenges and growing frustration with the way EHRs are performing. Many physicians find these systems cumbersome, do not meet their workflow needs, decrease efficiency, and have limited, if any, interoperability.

Of course, my attitude is that we need basic operability before the wickedly difficult to accomplish and far less useful (to patients) interoperability. 
 
... Most importantly, certified EHR technology (CEHRT) can present safety concerns for patients. We believe there is an urgent need to change the current certification program to better align end-to-end testing to focus on EHR usability, interoperability, and safety.

Let me state what they're saying more clearly:

"This technology in its present state is putting patients at risk, harming them, and even killing them, is making practice of medicine more difficult, is putting clinicians at liability risk, and the 'certification' program is a joke."

... We understand from discussions with the Office of the National Coordinator for Health Information Technology (ONC) that there is an interest in improving the current certification program. For the reasons outlined in detail below, we strongly recommend the following changes to EHR certification:

1. Decouple EHR certification from the Meaningful Use program;
2. Re-consider alternative software testing methods;
3. Establish greater transparency and uniformity on UCD testing and process results;
4. Incorporate exception handling into EHR certification;
5. Develop C-CDA guidance and tests to support exchange;
6. Seek further stakeholder feedback; and
7. Increase education on EHR implementation.

Patient Safety
Ensuring patient safety is a joint responsibility between the physician and technology vendor and requires appropriate safety measures at each stage of development and implementation.

I would argue that it's the technologists who have butted into clinical affairs with aid from their government friends, thus the brunt of the ill effects of bad health IT should fall on them.  However, when technology-related medical misadventures occur, it's the physicians who get sued.

... While training is a key factor, the safe use of any tool originates from its inherent design and the iterative testing processes used to identify issues and safety concerns. Ultimately, physicians must have confidence in the devices used in their practices to manage patient care. Developers must also have the resources and necessary time to focus on developing safe, functional, and useable systems.

Right now, those design and testing processes compare to those in other mission-critical sectors employing IT quite poorly.

Considering fundamental stunningly-poor software quality that I've observed personally, such as lack of appropriate confirmation dialogs and notification messages supporting teamwork, lack of date constraint checking (see my report to FDA MAUDE at http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cdrh/cfdocs/cfmaude/detail.cfm?mdrfoi__id=1729552 and many others at http://hcrenewal.blogspot.com/2011/01/maude-and-hit-risk-mother-mary-what-in.html), and other fundamentals, I would say grade schoolers could probably have done a better job of safety testing than the vendors and IT amateur-implementers of the major systems I observed did. 

... Unfortunately, we believe the Meaningful Use (MU) certification requirements are contributing to EHR system problems, and we are worried about the downstream effects on patient safety.

In other words, computers and the government thirst for data do not have more rights than patients.  In the current state of affairs, as I have observed prior, computers do seem to have more rights than patients and the clinicians who must increasingly use them.

... Physician informaticists and vendors have reported to us that MU certification has become the priority in health information technology (health IT) design at the expense of meeting physician customers� needs, patient safety, and product innovation. We are also concerned with the lack of oversight ONC places on authorized testing and certification bodies (ATCB) for ensuring testing procedures and standards are adequate to secure and protect electronic patient information contained in EHRs.

Not just security, but patient safety also.  See for example my Feb. 2012 post "Hospitals and Doctors Use Health IT at Their Own Risk - Even if 'Certified'" at http://hcrenewal.blogspot.com/2012/02/hospitals-and-doctors-use-health-it-at.html.

Read the entire letter at http://mb.cision.com/Public/373/9710840/9053557230dbb768.pdf.

Sadly, while on the right track regarding the problems of bad health IT, the societies take a Milquetoast approach to correction:

... In May 2014, stakeholders representing accredited certification bodies and testing laboratories (ACB & ATL), EHR vendors, physicians, and health care organizations provided feedback to ONC on the complexities of the current certification system. Two main takeaways from these comments were for ONC to host a multi-stakeholder Kaizen event and to prioritize security, quality measures, and interoperability in the EHR certification criteria. We strongly support both of these ideas...

A multi-stakeholder "Kaizen event'?  (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaizen)

That's one recommendation I find disappointing.  The industry plays hard politics, and organized medicine wants to play touchy-feely "good change" management mysticism with that industry and their government apparatchiks.  That's how organized medicine wants patients and the integrity of the medical profession to be protected from the dysfunctional health IT ecosystem (see http://cci.drexel.edu/faculty/ssilverstein/cases/?loc=cases&sloc=ecosystem)?  

When I originally created my old website called "Medical informatics and leadership of clinical computing" back in 1998, Kaizen events were not exactly what I had in mind.

Finally, the American Medical Informatics Association (http://www.amia.org) was apparently not informed of this letter, nor did it participate in its drafting.  While this is regrettable, as the organization is the best reservoir of true Healthcare Informatics expertise, I opined to that group that this may have been due to the organization's tepid response to bad health IT and to industry control of the narrative, and the problems these issues have caused for physicians and other clinicians. The lack of AMIA leadership regarding bad health IT is an issue I've been pointing out since the late 1990s. AMIA has been largely a non-critical HIT promoter.  That stance has contributed to the need for this multiple-medical specialty society letter in the first place.

Parenthetically, and for a touch of humor about an otherwise drab topic: Here's an example of how management mysticism plays out in pharma.

It's meant to be satirical, but captures reality all too well, in fact scarily so at times:


Management mysticism and muddled thinking.  See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwVjftMMCIE

In pharma, as well as in hospital IT in my days as CMIO, gibberish like this was real.  I imagine it's no different in many hospital management suites these days.

-- SS

1/28/2015  Addendum:

Per a colleague:

FierceHealthIT (1/28) reports, �It�s time for the American Medical Association and more than 30 other organizations urging change in the electronic health record certification process to be part of the solution, former Deputy National Coordinator for Health IT Jacob Reider said in a blog post.� Reider said, �So far, I don�t see much [any?] engagement from the AMA or the others who signed the letter. It�s relatively easy to write a letter saying someone else is responsible for solving problems. Time to step up to the plate and participate in the solutions, folks!"

Regarding the victims of compelled use of bad health IT, this erstwhile health IT leader opines "It's relatively easy to write a letter saying someone else is responsible for solving problems?"

That is simply perverse.

I ask: why are we in the midst of a now-compelled national rollout with Medicare penalties for non-adopters when a former government official once responsible for the technology remarks that it's apparently not the makers' problem and that it's "time to step up to the plate and participate in the solutions, folks [a.k.a. end users]!"

(One wonders if Reider believes those who step up to the plate are entitled to fair compensation for their aid to an industry not exactly known for giving its products away, free.)

It seems to me it's not up to (forced) customers to find solutions to vendor product problems, some deadly.

It's the responsibility of the sellers.

Put more bluntly, Reider's statement is risible and insulting.

I've already opined the following to the AMA contact at the bottom of the letter:

... Relatively milquetoast approaches such as multi-stakeholder Kaizens are not what I had in mind ... A more powerful stance would be to advise society members to begin to avoid conversion, report on bad health IT, and even boycott bad health IT until substantive changes are realized in this industry.

That's "stepping up to the plate" to protect patients, in a very powerful way.

-- SS

Tuesday, 27 January 2015

Princess Health and Is Meat Unhealthy?  Part VII. Princessiccia

Princess Health and Is Meat Unhealthy? Part VII. Princessiccia

Looking at individual diseases is informative, but it can cause us to become myopic, making broad health-related decisions based on narrow information. It can cause us to miss the forest for the trees. In this case, the "trees" are individual diseases and the "forest" is total mortality: the overall risk of dying from any cause. Does eating meat increase total mortality, shortening our lifespans?

Non-industrial cultures

Traditionally-living cultures such as hunter-gatherers and non-industrial agriculturalists are not the best way to answer this question, because their mean lifespans tend to be short regardless of diet. This is due to ~30 percent infant mortality, which drags down the average, as well as a high risk of death in adulthood from infectious disease, accidents, and homicide/warfare. It can also be difficult to accurately measure the age of such people, although there are reasonably good methods available.

However, there are semi-industrialized cultures that can help us answer this question, because they feature a somewhat traditional diet and lifestyle, combined with modern medicine and the rule of law. The so-called Blue Zones, areas of exceptional health and longevity, fall into this category. These include Sardinia, Italy; Okinawa, Japan; Loma Linda, California; Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica; and Icaria, Greece.

Read more �

Wednesday, 21 January 2015

Princess Health and Logical Fallacies in Defense of Aggresive Screening for and Treatment of Hepatitis C. Princessiccia

And the hepatitis C follies continue...

As we have frequently written, most recently last week, the hepatitis C screening and treatment bandwagon keeps rolling along.  There is constant public argument about the prices of treatment regimens, which approach $100,000 per patient in the US.  However, nearly all the public chatter, which seems mostly to come from corporate public relations people and marketers, investors and investment advisers, physicians with financial conflicts of interest, and pundits with little background in clinical epidemiology, seems never to question the assumption that the new drugs for hepatitis C are miraculous cures, which, of course, makes it hard to argue that they should not cost royal amounts.

The Lack of Good Evidence for the New Hepatitis C Treatments

However, starting in March, 2014, we have posted about the lack of good evidence from clinical research suggesting these drugs are in fact so wondrous.  The drugs are now touted as "cures," at least by the drug companies, (look here), and physicians are urged to do widespread screening to find patients with asymptomatic hepatitis C so they can benefit from early, albeit expensive treatment.

However, as we pointed out (e.g., here and here)
-  The best evidence available suggests that most patients with hepatitis C will not go on to have severe complications of the disease (cirrhosis, liver failure, liver cancer), and hence could not benefit much from treatment.
-  There is no evidence from randomized controlled trials that treatment prevents most of these severe complications
-  There is no clear evidence that "sustained virologic response," (SVR), the surrogate outcome measure promoted by the pharmaceutical industry, means cure. 
-  While the new drugs are advertised as having fewer adverse effects than older drugs, it is not clear that their benefits, whatever they may be, outweigh their harms.

Furthermore, health care professionals and researchers with heftier credentials in clinical epidemiology and evidence based medicine than mine have since published similar concerns.  These included
- a report from the German Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (the English summary is here)
- an article in JAMA from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (1)
- a report from the Center for Evidence-Based Policy (link here)
- an article in Prescrire International (2)

These publications and your humble scribe noted that the clinical trials or other types of clinical research about new hepatitis C treatment published in the most prominent journals had numerous methodologic problems that all seemed likely to make the new drugs look better, perhaps intentionally.  (See posts herehere, and here.)

Yet the lack of evidence, and the discussion up to last week of this lack of evidence, was mostly anechoic.  The public argument continued to be based on the assumption that new treatments of hepatitis C are miraculous.  

The BMJ Elicits An Interesting Response

Last week the British Medical Journal provided the first opportunity for a large audience to be exposed to skepticism about the hepatitis C bandwagon.  As we discussed here, the article by Koretz et al(3) based an affirmation of the four points above on a critical examination of the evidence. 

The article, and even our blog post about it, seem less anechoic than the previous articles and blog posts mentioned above.  At least a few commentators were inspired to a defense of the currently received wisdom.  However, in my humble opinion, the commentators mainly succeeded in demonstrating how received wisdom is often supported by illogic.

Defending the Received Wisdom with Logical Fallacies - Analysis of an Anonymous Comment 

Let me start with examples derived from dissecting the arguments of the first anonymous comments we received on our  blog post.

Examples of the Straw Man Fallacy

The commentators arguments included,

 The article suggests that the INF+RBV therapy is just as good as Harvoni,

Note that whether by "the article" the commentator meant the article by Koretz et al,(3) or the blog post on Health Care Renewal was not clear. In any case, neither made a statement to that effect.  Incidentally, I am not aware of any trial that directly compared Harvoni to some combination of interferon and ribavirin.

Both Koretz et al and I did refer to the ONLY trial in which one of the new antiviral drugs (sofosbuvir) was directly compared to peg-interferon and ribavirin.(4)    I discussed that trial in detail here ( http://hcrenewal.blogspot.com/2014/04/knee-deep-in-hoopla-triumph-of-medical.html)  It showed no significant difference between the sustained viral responses at 12 weeks produced the two regimens.  As far as I can tell, there is NO evidence from any controlled trial that the new drugs are more effective than the old drugs.

So the commentator's argument was based on a misstatement of either Koretz and colleagues' or my argument.  In any case, it is therefore an example of a logical fallacy, the straw man fallacy.  The commentator was not arguing with something we wrote, but rather a straw man assertion which the commentator constructed.  

The commentator also said,

the claim that INF+RBV causes adverse effects in less than 1% of treated is just false,

Again, neither Koretz et al nor I wrote that.  So this began another argument based on the straw man logical fallacy. 

Koretz et al and I again referred to data from the Lawitz et al controlled trial.  That trial did suggest that the new drug produced more, not less severe adverse effects than the old drug.

The Red Herring Fallacy

The commentator wrote,

The statement that most patients will not go on to severe liver damage/liver cancer is unproven.

Presumably, this meant most patients with untreated hepatitis C will not go on to severe liver disease/ cancer.  This, however, is a statement about the natural history of a disease.  How a statement about disease prognosis could be "proven," however, is not clear.  It is not ethically easy, or perhaps possible, to do an experiment to prove the natural history of disease.  Our knowledge of prognosis therefore relies on observational studies.  While such studies can show association, they cannot prove causation.  So it is true that the prognosis of hepatitis C is unproven, but in practical terms it cannot be proven, or unproven.  While the commentator implied that longer term studies would show that patients have very bad outcomes, but no one knows that with certainty.  Thus, the assertion seems to be an example of a red herring, bringing up an irrelevant point to distract from the issue. 

Appeal to Authority

The commentator wrote,

SVR12 is a commonly accepted evidence for complete eradication of the virus

So the argument was that some people, perhaps, as was said at the conclusion of �Raiders of the Lost Ark,� top men believe that SVR means complete cure.



Why anyone believes that SVR12 means cure, and particularly whether this belief is based on evidence and logic was not explained. Just because some people, even top men, believe it does not mean it is true.  Thus this assertion is an example of another logical fallacy, an appeal to authority. By the way, there are plenty of people, including Koretz et al, who do not believe this. 

ADDENDUM (27 January, 2015) - I have now independently verified that the comments made on our blog by "anonymous" were made by a patient, and were made honestly, not cynically.  Furthermore, English is not the patient's first language, so he or she may have used English words such as "unproven" and "commonly accepted" somewhat differently than I understood. 

More Logical Fallacies in the BMJ Rapid Responses

Similarly, the article by Koretz et al has generated a few rapid responses which contain their own share of logical fallacies.  Some examples follow from comments through January 19, 2015.

Begging the Question and the Burden of Proof Fallacy

In the January 15, 2015 comments by Donna R Cryer

[The article by Koretz et al] severely undervalues the harms, to the individual and society, of active HCV infection. Reduction or avoidance of end stage liver disease or death are not the only appropriate measures of value of screening or the effectiveness of new medications.

Ms Cryer did not state what the values of the harms are, nor what the other appropriate measures might be, and provided no evidence for either assertion.  So this boils down to, "you are wrong and I am right."  More formally, this could be an example of begging the question, that is, an argument - in this case that screening is warranted - simply based on assumptions without explanation or supporting evidence.  On the other hand, this could also be an argument of the burden of proof fallacy.  Ms Cryer implies that Koretz et al must prove their conclusions, while she simply needs to assert hers. 

Appeal to Fear

Again from Cryer,

To propose that widespread birth cohort screening efforts be undermined is a disservice to every individual living, unknowingly, with the silently devastating disease that is hepatitis C.

Note that this sentence again appears to include begging the question, with the assertion that hepatitis C is "silently devastating," without explanation or supporting evidence, and the burden of proof fallacy, since it implicitly rejected Koretz and colleagues' argument that hepatitis C is not devastating to all patients, which was based on at least some evidence, without supplying any evidence that it is devastating.  Furthermore, this has an element of an appeal to fear in its use of the emotionally loaded word, "devastating."  Note that Koretz et al instead talked about specific complications of hepatitis C. 

Wishful Thinking

In the January 18, 2015, comments by Nowlan Selvapatt

newer regimes will ultimately improve pricing competition and sustained virologic response rates compared to interferon based therapies.

The author did not explain why these improvements will occur.  This could be another example of begging the question.  On the other hand, it also could be wishful thinking, which at least some people consider a logical fallacy as well as a cognitive bias.  Obviously, it would be nice for the newer treatments to achieve better results at lower prices in the future, but the future is not so predictable.

An even more explicit example of wishful thinking, alsoby Selvapatt, was,

The hope would be that ... [screening] would serve to reduce the economic and healthcare pressures associated with end stage liver disease caused by hepatitis C.

That would be the hope, certainly, but should the decision to screen be based on hope, or on evidence and logic.

Appeal to Authority

In the January 19, 2015, comments by Padmanabhan Badrinath

Regarding side effects Koretz et al state 'However, in a trial of sofosbuvir versus peginterferon plus ribavirin, 3% of participants taking sofosbuvir experienced serious adverse events compared with 1% in the peginterferon plus ribavirin arm (difference not significant)'. According to NICE 'Evidence Review Group (ERG) was satisfied that the evidence showed that treatment with sofosbuvir-based regimens was generally well tolerated and led to fewer adverse events than treatment with peginterferon alfa and ribavirin'.

Note that Koretz et al provided data, and again, that from the only clinical trial that compared a new drug (sofosbuvir) to an old drug, peg-interferon.  However, Badrinath contrasted that evidence with conclusions from the NICE report that were about apparently any, rather than just severe adverse events, and Badrinath did not provide any justification of or evidence supporting these conclusions.  While NICE is admittedly often considered to be pretty authoritative, simply stating its conclusions in the absence of evidence to refute Koretz's presentation of evidence amounts to an appeal to authority.

Summary

So it appears that the BMJ article on hepatitis C rendered the skepticism about the miraculous qualities of the innovative new antiviral drugs for hepatitis C less anechoic.  However, the response to these echoes seems to have been enriched with illogic.

So it goes in the brave new world of health care.  In the current money driven system, new "innovations" touted as miraculous constantly appear.  When a few skeptics question the evidence or logic supporting these claims, these doubts usually start as anechoic.  If the doubts are more widely expressed, the first line of defense seems to be often based on logical fallacies.  We most recently saw such fallacies deployed defending another drug, sacubitril, touted as miraculous from annoying skeptics.

Health care professionals, health care policy makers, and the public at large should not be swayed by illogic.   Our continuing series about how logical fallacies are used to support the status quo and the powers that be in health care suggests, if nothing else, that health care professional education ought to include courses in logic.

References

1.   Ollendorf DA, Tice JA et al.  The comparative clinical effectiveness and value of simeprevir and sofosbuvir in chronic hepatitis C viral infection.  JAMA Inte Med 2014.  Link here.
2. Sofosbuvir (Sovaldi), active against hepatitis C virus, but evaluation is incomplete. Prescrire Int 2015; 24: 5- 10. Link here.
3. Koretz RL, Lin KW, Ioannidis JPA, Lenzer J.  Is widespread screening for hepatitis C justified? Br Med J 2015; 350: g7809. Link here.
4.  Lawitz E, Mangia A, Wyles D et al.  Sofosbuvir for previously untreated chronic hepatitis C infection.  N Engl J Med 2013; 368: 1878-1887.  Link here.

Monday, 19 January 2015

Princess Health and Making the Arc of the Moral Universe Bend . Princessiccia

Princess Health and Making the Arc of the Moral Universe Bend . Princessiccia

On this day, the US celebrates the legacy of the Rev Martin Luther King Jr.

Martin Luther King Jr once famously addressed the question of how long it would take to achieve some measure of real equality in the US (in the "Our God is Marching on Speech.")  He stated,

the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice. 

In context, he clearly meant that such bending was possible when people devoted hard work and concerted action toward this end.  Rev King was hardly one to sit back and passively expect good things to happen. However, as pointed out in the Huffington Post entry by Christ Weigant, this sentence has often been taken out of context to justify passivity, and argue that we need not discomfit ourselves too much to achieve justice.

I have heard it used that way in the health care sphere, to justify collaboration with industry in areas where management's typical thrust to achieve quick revenue may lead to interests very different from those of medical professionals.  (We have posted frequently about conflicts of interest, and institutional conflicts of interest in health care, and how justification for such "collaboration" is often based on logical fallacies.)

So on this day, I urge you to think about how hard it may be to make health care more just, but how necessary it is to push on regardless.

Thursday, 15 January 2015

Princess Health and The Fashion Challenges of the Emperor of Hepatitis C Treatment - Now in the BMJ, but Who Will Notice?. Princessiccia

Princess Health and The Fashion Challenges of the Emperor of Hepatitis C Treatment - Now in the BMJ, but Who Will Notice?. Princessiccia


As we wrote, most recently last week, the hepatitis C screening and treatment bandwagon keeps rolling along.  There is constant public argument about the prices of treatment regimens, which approach $100,000 per patient in the US.  However, nearly all the public chatter, which seems mostly to come from corporate public relations people and marketers, investors and investment advisers, physicians with financial conflicts of interest, and pundits with little background in clinical epidemiology, seems never to question the assumption that the new drugs for hepatitis C are miraculous cures, which, of course, makes it hard to argue that they should not cost royal amounts.

The Lack of Good Evidence for the New Hepatitis C Treatments

However, starting in March, 2014, we have posted about the lack of good evidence from clinical research suggesting these drugs are in fact so wondrous.  The drugs are now touted as "cures," at least by the drug companies, (look here), and physicians are urged to do widespread screening to find patients with asymptomatic hepatitis C so they can benefit from early, albeit expensive treatment.

However, as we pointed out (e.g., here and here)
-  The best evidence available suggests that most patients with hepatitis C will not go on to have severe complications of the disease (cirrhosis, liver failure, liver cancer), and hence could not benefit much from treatment.
-  There is no evidence from randomized controlled trials that treatment prevents most of these severe complications
-  There is no clear evidence that "sustained virologic response," (SVR), the surrogate outcome measure promoted by the pharmaceutical industry, means cure. 
-  While the new drugs are advertised as having fewer adverse effects than older drugs, it is not clear that their benefits, whatever they may be, outweigh their harms.


Furthermore, health care professionals and researchers with heftier credentials in clinical epidemiology and evidence based medicine than mine have since published similar concerns.  These included
- a report from the German Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (the English summary is here)
- an article in JAMA from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (1)
- a report from the Center for Evidence-Based Policy (link here)
- an article in Prescrire International (2)

These publications and your humble scribe noted that the clinical trials or other types of clinical research about new hepatitis C treatment published in the most prominent journals had numerous methodologic problems that all seemed likely to make the new drugs look better, perhaps intentionally.  (See posts herehere, and here.)

The British Medical Journal Publishes a Skeptical Review of Hepatitis C Screening  

Now an article in the British Medical Journal again raises questions about whether the emperor of hepatitis C treatment has some missing garments.(3)  To date, this article has received minimal attention from large media outlets.  I could only find stories in Bloomberg, and by the San Francisco Chronicle to date.

The article by Koretz et al focused on the evidence, or lack thereof in favor of screening for hepatitis C, but affirmed the following points

Most Patients with Hepatitis C Will Not Go On to Have Severe Complications of the Disease

To wit,

At least 2.7 million people are infected with hepatitis C virus in the US, and around 16?000 people each year die or have liver transplantations because of the disease. This suggests that less than 0.6% of infected patients will die of liver disease or be transplanted each year.

Also,

Retrospective studies of the natural course of hepatitis suggest that end stage liver disease is common and that it takes about 20 years to develop cirrhosis and 30 years to develop liver cancer. However, such series are usually composed of people who have a medical problem and are thus a sicker subpopulation of the people with chronic hepatitis C infection (referral bias). Furthermore, the total number of infected patients from which they are drawn is unknown.

Finally,

The risk of developing end stage liver disease is low for the first three decades of infection. Unfortunately, data on the risk beyond that point are limited. Only three studies provide data beyond 30 years, and the data are for children and women (both groups perhaps being at lower risk of progression) and for men in whom it was not clearly proved that the infections were chronic when diagnosed. Nonetheless, these data are consistent with previously cited epidemiological data from the general population, and it is likely that 80-85% of patients with chronic hepatitis C will die from non-hepatic causes

There is No Evidence from Randomized Controlled Trials that Treatment Prevents Most of these Complications

The most convincing way to establish efficacy of treatment is through well designed and conducted randomised, placebo controlled trials using clinical outcomes (morbidity and mortality). However, such trials are available only for interferon monotherapy. Ten randomised trials of interferon alfa have been conducted in patients with severe fibrosis or cirrhosis. The results were disappointing, even though at the time, expert opinion advocated interferon treatment for these patients.

There is No Clear Evidence that SVR Means Cure

Sustained virological response is not a cure. Viral RNA is sometimes found in body tissues even when the serum is clear; in some studies this has been found frequently. The virus also reappears in some patients with sustained response, and though this might be thought to be due to reinfection, at least sometimes these events represent the reappearance of the same virus. Moreover, a few patients with a sustained response develop end stage liver disease. In the largest observational study to assess this risk, 1001 patients with severe fibrosis (84% with cirrhosis) with sustained virological response were followed for up to eight years. During that time, 50 developed hepatocellular carcinomas, a 1% annual risk. Observational studies have suggested that the annual incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in people with compensated cirrhosis secondary to hepatitis C infection is 1.4-3.3%.

There is No Evidence that the Benefits of Treatment Outweigh Its Harms

Claims of increased safety or tolerability of the newer treatment have been based on fewer and less severe side effects. However, the new drugs can still cause serious adverse events (resulting in persistent disability, hospital admission, or death).

Also,

Safety data are limited for the newest drugs. However, in a trial of sofosbuvir versus peginterferon plus ribavirin, 3% of participants taking sofosbuvir experienced serious adverse events compared with 1% in the peginterferon plus ribavirin arm (difference not significant). Combination therapy with sofosbuvir plus ledipasvir with or without ribavirin, was associated with a 0.5-2% rate of serious adverse events. According to a recent analysis of US Food and Drug Administration data, over one year telaprevir accounted for the single greatest number of reported severe and fatal skin reactions of any drug monitored. Unfortunately, we cannot weigh the risk versus the benefit at this time because we have no data on the precise benefit (if any).

Summary

Koretz et al supplied these conclusions:

If the treatment of hepatitis C is to be scaled up to cover a large portion of the 125-150 million infected people worldwide, regulatory agencies should ensure that drugs have been evaluated by long term follow-up of clinical outcomes (not just surrogate markers) in several thousands of patients. The financial cost of treatments have been discussed elsewhere, but given the uncertainty about the validity of the surrogate markers, the lack of evidence regarding clinical outcomes of treatment or of screening strategies, and the adverse events caused by the newer regimens, screening may be premature. 

By the same logic, it is not clear that treatment of asymptomatic patients found to have hepatitis C provides benefits that outweigh its harms.

Thus, more authoritative voices are saying that the hepatitis C treatment emperor is seriously fashion challenged.

If there is no good evidence that these drugs do more good than harm for asymptomatic patients, why should physicians prescribe them for these patients?  If use of these drugs in general has not been shown to do more good than harm, why should they be prescribed for any but the most desperate patients?  Finally, if these drugs have not been shown to do more good than harm, and the lack of evidence is clearly the responsibility of  the drugs' manufacturers who chose not to do very large and/or long-term randomized controlled trials and not to assess clinical outcomes, what justification is there for the gargantuan prices of these drugs?

A larger societal question is why the public discussion has been so dominated by enthusiasts for these drugs, and so little informed by the existing evidence, or lack thereof, from clinical research?  

To repeat,.. the Sovaldi (and now Harvoni, Viekira Pak, etc) case is a signal example of how our health care system is awash in marketing hype and public relations buzz that has swamped rational skeptical thinking about logic and evidence.  That marketing and PR is ever enriching managers while it will send the rest of us, health care professionals included, to the poor house.  And all the money we spend will likely not buy us the promised miracles and triumphs.

It is disappointing that so many physicians and other health professionals have been caught up in this hype and spin, probably abetted by their wishful thinking about cures of hepatitis C, and perhaps also abetted by financial conflicts of interest.  Yet to protect the best interests of their patients, they should be rigorously skeptical of illogical or evidence-free arguments made to further vested financial interests.

As we have said until blue in the face, true health care reform would bring some skeptical thinking and regard for evidence and logic into the health policy discussion.

ADDENDUM (19 January, 2015) - See also comments in the HealthNewsReview.org blog.

ADDENDUM (22 January, 2015) - See an analysis of logical fallacies found in comments arguing with this post, and employed by authors of rapid responses to the Kortetz et al article in the BMJ, in this post.

ADDENDUM (28 January, 2015) - This post was republished in OpenHealth News here

References
1.   Ollendorf DA, Tice JA et al.  The comparative clinical effectiveness and value of simeprevir and sofosbuvir in chronic hepatitis C viral infection.  JAMA Inte Med 2014.  Link here.
2. Sofosbuvir (Sovaldi), active against hepatitis C virus, but evaluation is incomplete. Prescrire Int 2015; 24: 5- 10. Link here.
3. Koretz RL, Lin KW, Ioannidis JPA, Lenzer J.  Is widespread screening for hepatitis C justified? Br Med J 2015; 350: g7809. Link here.
Princess Health and Does high protein explain the low-carb "metabolic advantage"?. Princessiccia

Princess Health and Does high protein explain the low-carb "metabolic advantage"?. Princessiccia

In 2012, David Ludwig's group published a paper that caused quite a stir in the diet-nutrition world (1). They reported that under strict metabolic ward conditions, weight-reduced people have a higher calorie expenditure when eating a very low carbohydrate diet (10% CHO) than when eating a high-carbohydrate diet (60% CHO)*.

In other words, the group eating the low-carb diet burned more calories just sitting around, and the effect was substantial-- about 250 Calories per day. This is basically the equivalent of an hour of moderate-intensity exercise per day, as Dr. Ludwig noted in interviews (2). The observation is consistent with the claims of certain low-carbohydrate diet advocates that this dietary pattern confers a "metabolic advantage", allowing people to lose weight without cutting calorie intake-- although the study didn't actually show differences in body fatness.

In Dr. Ludwig's study, calorie intake was the same for all groups. However, the study had an important catch that many people missed: the low-carbohydrate group ate 50 percent more protein than the other two groups (30% of calories vs. 20% of calories). We know that protein can influence calorie expenditure, but can it account for such a large difference between groups?

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